Republican presidential candidate John McCain arrived in Teaneck on Aug. 12 with two goals in mind. The first was to raise needed campaign funds for his battle with Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama. The second was to make his presence known in a state, long-trending Democratic, that his campaign is convinced can be flipped from blue to red.

"We have to reform the way we do business" and stop out-of-control federal spending, he said. "We have to bring back prosperity, keep taxes low and make sure we create new jobs."

NJ Republicans optimistic about taking the state

With the GOP last coming out on top in New Jersey in the 1988 presidential race, the chances of winning the state’s 15 electoral votes appears to be slim for any Republican candidate. A Quinnipiac University poll released the day after McCain’s visit showed him trailing Obama — the Democrat held a 51-to-41 percent lead, a wider gap than the six-point margin seen in a June Quinnipiac survey.

A significant fund-raising gap also exists between the candidates in the Garden State. According to reports filed with the Federal Election Commission, as of June 30 McCain has raised around $2.5 million in New Jersey, while Obama has raised close to $5.9 million. Representatives of the McCain campaign said that the candidate had raised approximately $1.5 million during his Aug. 12 stop in New Jersey.

Despite these seeming disadvantages, New Jersey State Sen. Bill Baroni (R-Mercer), chairman of McCain’s New Jersey campaign, stated that his candidate remained committed to winning the state in November.

"This is the sixth campaign stop the senator has made here since February, and we’ve campaigned all over the state," he said. "Elections in New Jersey are swung by those kind of independent and Reagan Democrat voters that are all throughout Bergen and Passaic counties. There is no doubt that campaigns have to be paid for and you have to do fundraising. We are committed to campaigning here, and some of that money that we raised tonight is staying right here in New Jersey to help pay for the kind of grassroots campaigning that Sen. McCain needs to win this election. John McCain has been in New Jersey so often that he’s soon going to have to apply for residency."

New Jersey Republican State Committee Chairman Tom Wilson applied political lessons from the past when he looked at McCain’s future chances.

"The formula that Republicans have won by before here includes disaffected middle-class voters who are overtaxed, feel energy prices are too high and feel some trepidation about the state of the economy," he said. "It’s one thing to talk about change, but it’s another to have delivered it. Sen. McCain has been here six times now, and he’ll absolutely be back. Sen. Obama was here last just before the Democratic primary in February. Sen. Obama is now choosing to hang ten in Honolulu instead of body surf in Brigantine. He’s turned his back on New Jersey. We’ll leave no vote unturned."

Rothman predicts cold NJ reception for McCain in fall

However, one of Obama’s earliest and strongest supporters in New Jersey maintained that any hope of a McCain upset in New Jersey will be washed away in a tide of Democratic votes.

"There are 1.7 million registered Democrats in this state compared to 1 million registered Republicans," said Rep. Steve Rothman (D-Fair Lawn), a regional co-chairman of Obama’s presidential campaign. Rothman was the only member of the New Jersey congressional delegation who supported the Illinois senator during his primary battle with Sen. Hillary Clinton. "We’ve had 500,000 new Democrats register this year, a lot before the February primary. People in New Jersey are very unhappy with the policies of President Bush and Vice President Cheney, policies that were supported 90 percent of the time by John McCain. They don’t want to repeat them."

In the same Quinnipiac poll that showed Obama with a 10-point lead over McCain, New Jersey voters also indicated that they supported drilling for oil in currently protected offshore areas by a nearly 2-to-1 margin. McCain has stated that he wants to end the ban on offshore oil drilling, while Obama has said that he would consider lifting oil drilling bans in some offshore areas as part of a broader energy policy package, a turnaround from his earlier no-drilling stance.

While New Jerseyans are increasingly concerned about rising gas prices and energy costs, Rothman believes that his candidate still has better ideas for solving the country’s energy problems.

"Sen. Obama has said that he would be willing to see additional offshore drilling if it were part of a package that included more money for alternative fuels, hybrid car development and clean nuclear power," he said. "This is a comprehensive approach that includes new approaches. Sen. McCain is still wedded to the Bush oil policies of the past, which is bad for New Jersey."